Our 44th President: Hilary Clinton

I'm calling it now so I can be the first people to say "I told you so," in November of 2008. Hillary Clinton will be our next President. I'm 100% sure. Okay, I'm about 75% sure; which is certainly confident enough to put my reasoning down for the whole world to see (hi, mom).

Before I get to my list, I thought I'd first share some thoughts on political junkies, myself included. Political junkies are generally smart people who care deeply about elections, idealism, and love talking about thinks like "electability" and "the issues." The problem with political junkies is they know more about politics than anyone else, care more about politics than anyone else, and therefore over think everything about politics. They are also the only people writing and talking about politics right now (meaning 12 months before anyone else will really start caring). As a political junkie myself, I have no problem with these things, but the problem with all this close scrutiny on (take a deep breath) Hardball, Meet the Press, Face the Nation, The O'Reilly Factor, Face the Nation, NOW, Inside Washington, The Situation Room, This Week, Think Tank, Crossfire, and the ten thousand other political shows (along with the 15 people currently tuning in) is that they are debating "electability" issues that ultimately mean nothing.

Why nothing? Because they are forgetting just how simple elections really are, and they're forgetting that of the politicians running right now, there is only one surefire winner: Hilary Clinton.

I made this realization a few weeks ago while having dinner with my friend Amanda and some of her "political junkie" friends. They all work for Michigan's democratic party and, of course, have a thousand ideas on who is going to win the 2008 election. When I gave them my prediction for another round of Clinton, they all looked at me like I was a freak and an idiot. It was at that precise moment I realized I was right, not because Amanda and her friends are idiots, but because they are too smart. These are the people who wish Al Gore would run again, loved Mr. Scream himself, Howard Dean, and probably would have volunteered for George McGovern in 1972 (if they were alive at the time). The bottom line is that they are so caught up in their own political idealism they (and all the televised hacks as well) have forgotten these very simple realities that are irrefutable proof that Hilary will win:

1. Democrats are Destined to Win in 2008. Have you seen President Bush's poll numbers? I mean, they stink. What kind of bounce will he give the party at the Republican National Convention? Heck, he'll be lucky if they even invite him. The bottom line is that with Iraq, the budget, the special prosecutors, and all the other problems the party has had over the last few years, there is little to no chance a "normal" Republican will win the general election. Unless a Democrat boggles something horribly (or Jesus flies down on Ronald Reagan's back and wipes out the Taliban and Al Qaeda on American Idol), a Democrat will be our next President.

2. Everyone Else Running has Massive Flaws. Barack Obama has almost no experience, not to mention his middle name is Hussein (forget being African American! Try sharing that in common with Saddam!); McCain is a thousand years old, has no money, and is hated by everyone but the press corp and fiscal conservatives; John Edwards is a light weight; Giuliani could win if he was a Democrat, and didn't have two ex-wives and children who hate him; Romney is trying for the arch-conservative vote as a Mormon; Fred Thompson would be intriguing if he had any experience (or didn't have the same appeal that Bush originally had - I highly doubt anyone wants to elect another Bush right now). It's a disaster. Forget the fact that none of the Republicans I just mentioned have a chance. There's nobody on this list who will survive the intense scrutiny of a Presidential run. Now, its true that Hilary also has her flaws, but read ahead to see how those won't mean diddly squat.

3. Being a Woman is Better (Politically) Than Being Black or Hispanic. There are over 150 million women in the United States. There are somewhere between 15-25 million Hispanics and less than 25 million African-Americans. As far as counting on "minority" votes to sweep a "minority" into office, I'd count on the person who is requiring those quotation marks around the word "minority." Women are a minority only in the sense that they have been persecuted for their sex; in numbers, they are the ultimate majority. If even some women who would normally not vote (or vote Republican) vote for Hilary because she is a woman, it will be a huge voting windfall. Barack Obama and Bill Richardson counting on the minorities (no quotation marks there) in their corner to help them out in a similar way is, frankly, mathematical wishful thinking.

4. The Clintons Always Win. Some candidates could easily screw up the "woman vote" factor. Not the Clintons. If there is anything for them to exploit, they will. Remember, the Clintons (and their merry team of strategists) have already won every type of election possible: Bill came out of nowhere in 1992, won with a big lead and never seriously screwed up in 1996, and Hilary ran two smart and serious campaigns for the Senate. They will exploit every hole in every other campaign, and it will be very difficult to fight back against Hilary Clinton because...

4. Smearing a Women will be Politically Disastrous. It's already started, and already gotten the 10 women who are concentrating on politics to go absolutely nuts. When (it's not a matter of "if"), the Republican candidate starts in with a patriarchal tone towards Senator Clinton, it will be the absolute END for that candidate. Mark my words. The Clintons will exploit whatever slip-up happens (during a debate? an ad campaign?) and run so wild with it that they just might end up getting 80 percent of the female vote (and get a huge female turnout while doing so). There is going to be an underground campaign in this election, and it is going to involve exploiting patriarchal sexism to turn out massive amounts of unhappy housewives, lesbian revolutionaries, and grandmothers who are sick of being told to make dinner every night. Just wait.

5. Popularity-Wise, Hilary has Nowhere to Go but Up. I've just mentioned a few of the other candidates larger flaws, but I don't really need to tell you Hilary's. That's because everyone already knows EVERY SINGLE flaw she has. The political junkies out there are playing this up like its a major problem (when they bring up her "like ability" numbers). I have a feeling that the Clintons are laughing heartily at this. Why? Because while every other candidate can (and will) be dragged through the mud, Hilary already has. Getting new dirt on her will be like trying to squeeze water from a turnip. The Republicans will try, but people are still sick of hearing about Whitewater, Health Care Reform, and Monica Gate. We already know it all. When we find out that Fred Thompson likes to date Asian lobbyists, or Giuliani fired his maid for speaking Spanish, or whatever is out there, Hilary is going to sit back and relax. Because she's been under the spotlight forever.

As a political junkie myself, its easy for me to criticize the logic I've laid forward. It's true what they say: "Anything can happen." I'm sure there are a lot of candidates with pretty good chances at winning, and Al Gore entering the race in late October could make this the most ridiculous blog ever (I still doubt it, thought), but the reality is that a) a Democrat is going to be the next President, b) Clinton has the best political minds working for her and c) she's going to be very, VERY hard to effectively attack.

So, forget Hardball and Meet the Press; all you need is one political junkie to tell you what's going to happen: ME. And I'm calling it today.

First Gentleman Bill Clinton is returning to the white house. Unlike the upcoming election, the effects of that will be difficult to predict.